Looking for a long-term sports betting strategy that works? There’s only one thing that really matters: price. Read on as we explain exactly why.
Why does price matter?
Ever wondered why most sports bettors end up losing in the long-run? It is because of something that is always overlooked, the price. Price is key to any successful sports betting strategy. In fact, it is far more important than the questions losing sports bettors often look to answer.
‘Who is going to win the game?’ ‘Who is going to score first?’ ‘What is the score going to be?’
The only question you need to ask yourself in order to become a long-term successful sports bettor is ‘which outcome is currently overpriced?’
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds simply represent the implied probability of that outcome coming true. It is important to know how to convert them, so we can identify which outcomes are overpriced. To work out the implied probability, we need to divide 100 by the decimal odds.
For example, a bet at 6/4 is 2.50 in decimal odds (6 divided by 4, plus 1)
100/2.50 = 40%
So, a bet at 6/4 is expected to win 40% of the time.
How do you spot a value bet?
Now we know how to work out the implied probability of the bookmaker’s prices, we can compare with our own figures to find the overpriced outcome.
Let’s say Chelsea are at home to Arsenal at the weekend, and one bookmaker is offering 2.50 on a Chelsea victory, implying a 40% chance of winning.
We disagree, believing Chelsea have a greater than 40% chance. In other words, Chelsea are overpriced by the bookmaker, and we should back the 2.50.
Making profit in the long-run
If your sports betting strategy involves consistently backing outcomes which are overpriced, you will make money in the long-run. Let’s explain in simple terms using the above example.
If we are betting on Chelsea to win at 2.50, and we believe the true probability is 50% or 2.0, then over 10 bets the following will happen to £1 stakes:
5 x Chelsea win
We win £1 x 2.50 each time, which is £1.50 profit. So, 5 x £1.50 = £7.50
5 x Chelsea do not win
We lose 5 x £1 = £5
After 10 bets, we have won £7.50 – £5 = £2.50
Getting the best price
So as you can see, always ensuring you get the best price is fundamental to any winning sports betting strategy. Backing Chelsea to win at 2.25 would still be a good bet for example, but it would be crazy to do so if you could get 2.50 elsewhere. Taking 2.25 rather than 2.5 would mean you reduce your profits by 50% over the 10 bets.
Many sports bettors make it so much harder for themselves to be profitable, taking shorting prices just because they like the site, or because they have some cash in that account. The same people would use price comparison sites to get the best deal on their car insurance, or spend hours online looking for the cheapest price on a new sofa. But when it comes to sports betting, they do not take advantage of the choice on offer.
How can BetConnect help?
Price is the key. By consistently identifying overpriced outcomes, coupled with obtaining the best price possible, you’ll be moving across into that small percentage of successful sports bettors in no time.
Fortunately, BetConnect gives you direct access to live bookmaker prices with the option of also setting custom odds. You can view the best prices from one account quickly and conveniently, giving you best chance of developing a winning sports betting strategy and boosting those profits!