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Betting Advice

Happy drawing! Football stalemates in focus

Football: Betting on the draw

Backing the draw in football is becoming an increasing trend – but where can you find the value?

In a previous post, we looked at some research across 3,000 games in various leagues outside the big five, and how they returned a 34% success rate, bringing a 15% yield.

Now we will look at what value we can find in the draw around specific matches in the top seven football leagues in England – plus the top leagues in Spain, Italy, France and Germany.

Five-year football draw trends

Premier League25%19%26%22%28%24
League One28%27%27%28%25%27
League Two31%27%26%26%26%27
National League28%26%30%23%26%27
National League North24%27%21%25%26%25
National League South26%23%24%22%26%24
Spain La Liga28%29%23%23%24%25
Italy Serie A23%29%22%21%25%24
France Ligue 125%29%25%25%28%26
Germany Bundesliga21%24%27%24%23%24

Looking at the current season, the percentage of draws is highest in League Two – where 31% of games have resulted in a draw.

The Premier League is relatively low at 25%, though this represents a jump from 19% last season.

Moving abroad, the draw percentage in Serie A this season is 23%, suggesting that last season’s 29% was an anomaly, especially when you look at the averages over the past five years.

The mid-season dilemma

Looking at the percentages mid-season is interesting – will we see a pattern whereby the back end of the season produces more (or less) draws, to send a league back towards its average? 

For instance, League Two has averaged 27% over the past five years, and this season – so do you keep backing the draw based on the 31% so far, or do you figure that there will be significantly less draws between now and the end of the season.

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Let’s look ahead to this weekend’s games, based on our draw trend criteria, which is:

  • Neither team can have drawn in any of their last three matches
  • There isn’t a heavy favourite

Back the draw in these games

Here are all the qualifying games for this weekend in the 11 leagues.

Southampton v Aston Villa (Premier League)
Charlton v Luton (Championship)
Fleetwood v Portsmouth (League One)
Northampton v Exeter* (League Two)
Wealdstone v Dorking Wanderers (National League South)
Werder Bremen v Dortmund* (Germany Bundesliga)
Osasuna v Granada (Spain La Liga)
Roma v Lecce (Italy Serie A)

Games with a * are on the borderline of having a heavy favourite, so you may want to make a decision based on the odds on offer.

If you’re feeling particularly adventurous, you could have a go at these long shots with heavy favourites:

Lille v Toulouse (French Ligue 1)
SPAL v Juventus (Italy Serie A)
Inter v Sampdoria (Italy Serie A)

Based on the trend, we could expect three of the eight listed to come in (or four of the 11 including the extra three); or you may want to simply lay against any winner in those matches.

In future experiments, we may discount games in leagues with a draw percentage lower than 25% – which at present would rule out Germany Bundesliga, Italy Serie A and National League North.

Happy drawing!

Open a BetConnect Pro account and benefit from 90 days of commission-free betting. Also check out our guides to Asian Handicaps and a general guide to football betting at BetConnect.


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